July 25, 2007

Survey Says


This cartoon was originally posted on October 12, 2006, and is one of over 400 illustrations you'll find in our latest book Black & White World III, which can be ordered via Cox & Forkum, The Steyn Store, Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble.com.

The cartoon also recently appeared in Significance, the magazine of The Royal Statistical Society.

From Michelle Malkin: A new critique of the 2004 Lancet Iraq death toll study. (via Little Green Footballs)

Much of the math here is mind-numbingly complicated, but Kane’s bottom line is simple: the Lancet authors "cannot reject the null hypothesis that mortality in Iraq is unchanged." Translation: according to Kane, the confidence interval for the Lancet authors' main finding is wrong. Had the authors calculated the confidence interval correctly, Kane asserts that they would have failed to identify a statistically significant increase in risk of death in Iraq, let alone the widely-reported 98,000 excess civilian deaths.

An interesting side note: as Kane observes in his paper, the Lancet authors "refuse to provide anyone with the underlying data (or even a precise description of the actual methodology)." The researchers did release some high-level summary data in highly aggregated form (see here), but they released neither the detailed interviewee-level data nor the programming code that would be necessary to replicate their results.

Posted by Forkum at July 25, 2007 02:07 PM